Thanks for reading, and congratulations on being first to comment on this Substack!
You raise a valid long-term concern. While Iowa and Missouri, for example, have seen continuing overall population growth, it's true that rural areas have shrunk while the big metro areas have grown.
For Casey's, I'll take a 'trust, but verify' approach. I assume that they know how to manage through this dynamic in their choice of locations. And I'll check the thesis is on track by monitoring for strong ongoing same-store sales growth.
Thanks for the insightful reply! That's what I was thinking as well. I find it fascinating that even though nonmetro population growth has been negative for over 10 years, Casey’s has almost doubled SSS since 2008.
great analysis! curious how you’re thinking about population outflow risk from rural towns that casey’s operates in?
Thanks for reading, and congratulations on being first to comment on this Substack!
You raise a valid long-term concern. While Iowa and Missouri, for example, have seen continuing overall population growth, it's true that rural areas have shrunk while the big metro areas have grown.
This has been ongoing since at least the 1950s, when rural county populations peaked. Source: https://www.iowabusinesscouncil.org/news/detail/202/
For Casey's, I'll take a 'trust, but verify' approach. I assume that they know how to manage through this dynamic in their choice of locations. And I'll check the thesis is on track by monitoring for strong ongoing same-store sales growth.
Thanks for the insightful reply! That's what I was thinking as well. I find it fascinating that even though nonmetro population growth has been negative for over 10 years, Casey’s has almost doubled SSS since 2008.