Thanks for the write up. Lots to play for. Live the fact that although Shore Cap is nominally the broker, they put out one note a year. Totally under researched. I think was the only institutional holder when at AXA IM.
My name is Richard Goodwin - I'm not related but if 30+ years ago I'd just put my money in this one share (based solely on the name) instead of a sensible, balanced portfolio then I'd be a lot better off!
Thank you for writing about GDWN Alex . We have been investors for years and nobody has researched it in so much detail . A great example of a family business that thinks long term
Thanks for the detailed write up. Goodwin new management has a history of over promising, it's always the next year that growth its coming, since 2018 or so if you read their reports. The Return on all the investments has been very low. Only time will tell but I would not listen to the management expectations. A lot of good news are baked in at the current valuation.
Many thanks for the comment. I greatly appreciate your sceptical view. It takes two perspectives to make a market.
Trailing OP was £23m to Oct’23. If we accept guidance then it reached c£25m to Apr’24. In my book, this is already respectable growth vs the £13.9m / £16.6m OP from FY18 and FY19.
However, you’ve certainly got a point that some promises of growth, especially Easat and perhaps also naval and nuclear, have not yet come through or at a much slower rate than historic statements suggested.
We’ll find out pretty soon whether OP flatlines in the 20s (as your comment implies), or jumps significantly as per my base case forecast.
I'd say that if the expectation of growth comes from your own analysis of the market, it should rank higher than from Goodwin's management words. There was growth in 2023 but it came after many years of "around the corner".
I don't know if the OP will flatline, just that high expectations are in the current price.
Thanks for the write up. Lots to play for. Live the fact that although Shore Cap is nominally the broker, they put out one note a year. Totally under researched. I think was the only institutional holder when at AXA IM.
Many thanks for reading.
Kudos for managing to own this in a fund. Long time horizon required!
My name is Richard Goodwin - I'm not related but if 30+ years ago I'd just put my money in this one share (based solely on the name) instead of a sensible, balanced portfolio then I'd be a lot better off!
Thank you for writing about GDWN Alex . We have been investors for years and nobody has researched it in so much detail . A great example of a family business that thinks long term
Thanks for the detailed write up. Goodwin new management has a history of over promising, it's always the next year that growth its coming, since 2018 or so if you read their reports. The Return on all the investments has been very low. Only time will tell but I would not listen to the management expectations. A lot of good news are baked in at the current valuation.
Many thanks for the comment. I greatly appreciate your sceptical view. It takes two perspectives to make a market.
Trailing OP was £23m to Oct’23. If we accept guidance then it reached c£25m to Apr’24. In my book, this is already respectable growth vs the £13.9m / £16.6m OP from FY18 and FY19.
However, you’ve certainly got a point that some promises of growth, especially Easat and perhaps also naval and nuclear, have not yet come through or at a much slower rate than historic statements suggested.
We’ll find out pretty soon whether OP flatlines in the 20s (as your comment implies), or jumps significantly as per my base case forecast.
I'd say that if the expectation of growth comes from your own analysis of the market, it should rank higher than from Goodwin's management words. There was growth in 2023 but it came after many years of "around the corner".
I don't know if the OP will flatline, just that high expectations are in the current price.