Sweet Stocks hits 500 subscribers - thank you!
Including links and updates on the 12 company write-ups published to date
Back in February, when I started sharing my write-ups on international all caps, I had no idea what interest there might be.
Twelve weeks later, it is very exciting to reach 500 subscribers and c.9,000 views per month. Thank you to all for signing up.
Special thanks to those who have recommended Sweet Stocks to friends and colleagues. Please do forward this email to spread the word to others who might enjoy it.
Below are links to the first twelve company write-ups, with a brief update on what happened next for each one. Before that, two requests.
Feedback: now’s a great time to send any feedback my way. As I contemplate the next set of write-ups, what would you like me to cover? Any requests for particular names, or preferences for countries / sectors / styles are welcome. General feedback is also welcome: please let me know what you like about the write-ups, and what you’re less keen on. Thank you in advance.
Meet up: if you are in London, or will be passing through, then please do get in touch. I’m always keen to meet up and chat about companies and stocks in person over a coffee / lunch / beer.
You can reach me on LinkedIn, Twitter, on the Substack app, or simply by hitting reply to this email. I look forward to hearing from you.
Write-ups and updates
The names published to date have ranged from $14bn to $86m in size. By country we’ve had the US, UK, Sweden, Switzerland, Japan, Australia and Hong Kong. By sector there’s been a mix of staples and cyclicals. Style has ranged from long-dated compounders to contrarian recovery opportunities. Still to come are technology and health care names, resources exposure and other countries including Taiwan.
4imprint is up 17% in USD terms since my write-up, on strong full year results, modest consensus upgrades and some re-rating. It remains my biggest position and my highest-conviction name for the long-term growth potential.
Casey’s is up 11% since I wrote about it. The most recent results included a resilient fuel margin. The consensus EPS estimate for FY25 has edged up a little.
Katitas is down 5% in USD terms, mainly on yen weakness. Earnings revisions remain slightly negative. There’s been no news since my note: FY results and guidance for next year are due in two weeks’ time.
Greggs is unchanged since my write-up. Full results were robust to my eyes, but 2024E estimates were held for the time being.
Reece also has a 0% USD total return since my note. Reflecting their unpromotional approach, there’s a news vacuum on the name, with no update scheduled until full-year results in August.
Beijer Ref is up 14% in USD terms since I published – one of the strongest returns for the name I was most cautious on. A new US bolt-on acquisition was well received. Their Q1 results were negative but no worse than expected, and their comps get easier from Q2 on.
Kobe Bussan is down 17% in USD terms. The extreme yen weakness hurts margins on their direct private label imports. Yet monthly results for March were encouraging. (See my review on Twitter.) I’m using the weakness to add.
Croda is down 6% in USD terms. Yesterday’s AGM trading update was in line but less than effusive, so the jury’s still out on their recovery. I continue to hold.
Vita Life Sciences is down 11% in USD terms on no particular news. Management sold >1m vested LTIP shares to repay outstanding loan balances. Valuation is attractive but liquidity remains low.
Barry Callebaut is up 11% in USD terms since my write-up. The H1 results were impressively stable, and management were confident that the exceptional cocoa price environment is more of an opportunity than a risk for the co. I added to my position as planned on the morning of results.
SITC is up 8% in the week since I wrote about it. No news.
Saia was only just published on Monday. Yesterday it shrugged off Old Dominion’s 11% fall, as ODFL reported no clear freight volume inflection as yet. Saia’s own results are due tomorrow.